A new early voting analysis in Texas has put Republican turnout under the spotlight as Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico compete for a U.S. Senate seat. The latest figures show a sizable gap between ballots the model associates with each party, while polling and campaign spending illustrate the high stakes surrounding the contest.
The October 25 projection, published by election analyst E DataGuy, counted approximately 4.1 million early and mail ballots statewide. Of those, the analyst classified 2,258,996 as Republican and 1,784,526 as Democratic. Another 59,157 ballots fell into a separate category.
Based on those classifications, the estimated Republican advantage stood at 474,470 ballots. That represented a considerable increase from the analyst’s October 22 estimate, when the corresponding figure was 255,144. The difference between the two estimates was 219,326 ballots.
The graphic also placed estimated Republican participation between 51% and 57%, compared with a projected Democratic range of 40% to 46%. Those numbers have attracted attention as both parties work to mobilize voters ahead of Election Day.
