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Hilton, who served as director of strategy for former UK Prime Minister David Cameron from 2005 to 2012, moved to California in 2012. He taught at Stanford University and co-founded the political crowdfunding platform Crowdpac. Hilton also hosted the Fox News program The Next Revolution until 2023. His gubernatorial campaign, launched in April 2025, focuses on affordability, housing, homelessness, and ending decades of Democratic control in Sacramento.
Among Republicans, Hilton slightly edges Bianco with 38 percent to 37 percent. He also leads in independent voter support at 22 percent, the highest of any candidate in the field, showing his appeal beyond traditional party lines. Democrats, however, remain divided, with Swalwell at 24 percent, Porter at 17 percent, and Steyer at 15 percent among party voters.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, emphasized the role of California’s election rules. “The split Republican vote and undecided independents could play a pivotal role in the state’s general election,” he explained.
California employs a nonpartisan “jungle” primary system, established under Proposition 14 in 2010. All candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same June 2, 2026, primary ballot. The top two vote-getters move to the November general election, potentially creating same-party matchups if one side consolidates while the other remains fragmented.
The Democratic field is particularly crowded, further splintering the vote. Alongside Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer, announced candidates include former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, each polling under five percent. With more than a dozen Democrats competing, no single candidate has surpassed 21 percent in recent surveys — leaving a clear path for Republicans like Hilton and Bianco.
Polling averages reflect a razor-thin race. RealClearPolitics currently shows Hilton and Bianco tied at 15.5 percent, with Swalwell trailing at 12.5 percent. Even campaign-internal polls, such as one from Becerra’s team, indicate Hilton and Bianco occupying the top spots, suggesting a realignment in California politics that could undermine Democratic dominance.
If current trends hold, Hilton’s rise illustrates how a strong, focused Republican message can break through in even the most Democrat-heavy states. Voter indecision, combined with a fragmented Democratic field, could hand Republicans an unprecedented opportunity in the Golden State.
