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Kondik explained, “If it comes and it completely changes our understanding of Section 2 and doesn’t protect these districts anymore, you could have a significant impact. You could see several states in the South potentially eliminating Democratic districts in states like Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee.”
History shows that the party holding the White House typically loses House seats in midterm elections. With Republicans currently holding a slim 220-213 majority, even minor shifts could tip the balance of power.
A Supreme Court ruling removing race-based protections from the Voting Rights Act could dramatically alter this landscape. According to analysis by Nate Cohn of the New York Times, such a decision could halve the number of Democratic seats in the South, with nine pickups directly linked to the end of Section 2 protections.
Still, the full impact remains uncertain. Red states could respond by creating moderate swing districts that allow “Blue Dog” Democrats to survive, particularly during a potential Democratic wave in 2026.
“I personally am not putting a number on it because we don’t know when it’s coming. We don’t know what it’ll say. And we don’t necessarily know how states will respond,” Kondik said.
Ballotpedia reports there are roughly 30 districts nationwide where Black voters make up a majority or plurality of the population. Experts warn that more than half of those districts in red states could be at risk depending on how the Supreme Court rules in Louisiana v. Callais.
The stakes are high in the House. With only a seven-seat advantage and two vacant Democratic positions, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can afford to lose just three votes on key partisan issues.
To strengthen their position ahead of 2026, former President Trump has urged Republican-led states to pursue rare mid-decade redistricting efforts. Texas has already enacted new congressional maps projected to deliver five additional GOP seats. Other battleground states, like Florida, are being closely examined for similar opportunities.
Meanwhile, California voters approved a ballot measure in November that would redraw districts to favor Democrats, potentially offsetting gains Republicans secure elsewhere.
Kondik summed up the situation: “The results so far have kind of been a wash from a partisan standpoint. I think the one way where Republicans really could come out of this with a much better overall house map is a quick and maximal [Voting Rights Act] decision.”
“Failing that, they may get a little bit of an edge out of redistricting, but probably not as big as they would have hoped,” he added.
