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But Hilton sees a path forward for conservatives, even in a state where left-wing policies dominate. “There are some interesting signs that should give optimism for Republicans in California,” he told Halperin.
The numbers back him up—at least partially. Hilton pointed to Trump’s 2020 vote tally in California as a proof point that the GOP could make gains. “If you look at November last year, not even the share of the vote, the number of votes that Donald Trump got, over 6 million — that number, if you project forward the turnout in a midterm election in California based on the past two midterms — the number of votes that Trump got in California, without really campaigning in California, is higher than what you would need to win in 2026,” Hilton said.
It’s a bold theory—but not entirely far-fetched. California’s political dynamics have shifted slightly in recent years, with increasing frustration over crime, homelessness, taxation, and state overreach.
Hilton, originally from the U.K., isn’t just another pundit. He served as strategy director for former British Prime Minister David Cameron and has been an outspoken critic of California’s current leadership on Fox News. His international background and outsider status could energize both conservative and independent voters.
He wouldn’t be the first Republican media figure to make a serious play for statewide office. Radio host Larry Elder made headlines during the 2021 recall election, winning 48.4 percent of the replacement vote. But 61.9 percent of Californians ultimately chose to keep Newsom in office.
And just this year, retired baseball star Steve Garvey ran as a Republican for the U.S. Senate. He came up short, losing to Democrat Adam Schiff 58.9 percent to 41.1 percent—but not without proving that Republican candidates can still attract millions of votes statewide.
Hilton, however, believes there’s something different this time around.
In a Fox News op-ed, he laid out his vision bluntly: “President Donald Trump did better in California than any Republican presidential candidate for decades,” he wrote. “Republican voter registration has also been increasing while Democrat registration has been falling.”
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And in perhaps his most cutting criticism yet of California’s Democratic leadership, Hilton didn’t hold back: “On Newsom’s watch, California has gone from being America’s crown jewel to its worst-run state. No fair-minded person could come to any other conclusion.”
The punchline? Hilton believes California could do the unthinkable: go red. “So, there you are: this could well be Gavin Newsom’s greatest legacy: flipping California red!”
As Democrats prepare for a wide-open gubernatorial field, Steve Hilton might just be the wild card that shakes the system. And if he enters the race, California’s political landscape could be in for a seismic shift.
