In a pivotal speech to a pro-Israel organization, former President Donald Trump raised a bold prediction: the Jewish vote could play a decisive role in the 2024 election. In key swing states like Pennsylvania, where the battle for electoral votes is fierce, this prediction may not be far off. With over 400,000 Jewish residents in Pennsylvania — roughly 3.3 percent of the population — a shift in their voting patterns could be the difference in the state’s critical 19 electoral votes.
Historically, American Jews have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, but recent polling suggests a significant change could be on the horizon. A Siena College survey of Jewish voters in New York, another critical battleground, shows a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, with Trump even enjoying a 10-point lead. This shift is monumental, considering the Jewish community’s longstanding Democratic allegiance.
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For decades, the Democratic Party could count on the Jewish vote, driven by cultural and historical ties. But new polling data shows a shift in priorities, particularly regarding Israel. According to a Pew Research study, 65 percent of Jewish voters currently back Kamala Harris, while 34 percent support Trump. This 34 percent figure marks a dramatic increase compared to previous elections, where Trump garnered only around 30 percent of the Jewish vote in 2020, and Mitt Romney achieved a similar figure in 2012. Trump’s potential surge among Jewish voters could become a defining feature of the 2024 race.
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