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The stakes couldn’t be higher. Trump revived American energy overnight after years of Biden’s deliberate sabotage. Biden’s team admitted openly that they wanted to “end fossil fuels.” They blocked pipelines, revoked drilling leases, and buried oil producers under suffocating regulations.
Trump, in contrast, wiped out that red tape immediately—relinking energy policy to national security. As Wirth reminded Bartiromo, “Energy security and national security are linked. The U.S. is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, and we now have an administration that wants to see the energy industry invest in those resources.”
That single difference defines two administrations: one that tries to strangle America’s oil industry, and another that sees it as the backbone of national power.
The real story is unfolding in the dusty plains of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. From 2020 to 2024, just ten counties accounted for a stunning 93% of America’s total oil production growth—nearly two million barrels a day.
As Van’t Hof put it, “It’s been producing for over 100 years and left for dead two or three times, and here we are now producing over 6 million barrels a day, which on its own would be the third-largest oil-producing country in the world.”
The Permian Basin has survived depressions, global recessions, and Washington’s hostility. Now, it’s staring down its biggest test yet—2026.
Industry insiders are bracing for pain before the rebound. Continental Resources founder Harold Hamm warned, “With about 18 months, that oversupply’s going to be gone. And then we need to watch out for some price shocks after that point.”
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Brent crude could slide to $62 by late 2025 and bottom out near $52 in 2026. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs echo the same warning—potentially a 25% plunge from recent highs.
The risk? Prices that low make drilling unprofitable. As ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance cautioned, U.S. shale “plateaus in the low $60s and declines at prices in the $50s.” If the bottom falls out, some producers will have no choice but to shut down wells—handing Biden’s environmental allies exactly what they’ve been hoping for.
Chevron’s Kim McHugh, a second-generation energy worker, put it best: “My husband’s in the industry. My daughters are in the industry. I believe in what we do. This is a noble cause people need. We make people’s lives better by what we do.”
These aren’t corporate elites—they’re American families who’ve built energy independence with their own hands. And they’re not giving up.
Thanks to new drilling technology, Permian wells are pumping more oil than ever before. By mid-2024, new sites were producing an incredible 433,000 barrels per day in their first month. That’s efficiency Biden’s regulators tried to stop—but couldn’t.
Trump’s push to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve gives producers a vital safety net. With one million barrels set to be purchased, the administration is ensuring steady domestic demand even during price dips.
As Wirth summed it up, “As we get on the other side of that and that supply’s back in the market, the market will come back into balance and I think we’ll see prices restored to a level a little bit higher, and ’26 may be a low point.”
Trump’s gamble is clear: unleash U.S. energy, weather the temporary storm, and break OPEC’s grip once and for all.
If the Permian Basin powers through, America locks in energy dominance for decades—keeping gas prices low, the economy strong, and foreign adversaries in check.
But if it fails? Biden’s green energy activists get their wish, and Americans will once again face $5 gas, energy shortages, and dependence on hostile nations.
The next 18 months will decide it all—whether America remains energy independent or falls back under the thumb of those who want to see it fail.
