Although that result does not give AfD an outright majority, its commanding performance marks the first time the party has finished first in a German state election.
That alone makes the vote a political milestone.
“Saxony-Anhalt is a relatively small state, and the heart of the AfD’s power base in eastern Germany,” the Times reported. “But the result has sent shock waves through the country’s political system, which was designed after World War II to prevent extremist parties from ever returning to power.”
The scale of the victory is particularly significant because AfD has faced a political blockade from Germany’s established parties for years.
“The political establishment has treated the AfD as a pariah, but the party tapped into voter frustration on a wide range of economic and social issues to win about 44 percent of the vote in the state, and was set to claim 39 of the 83 seats in the Parliament.”
The outcome also represents a serious setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his center-right political camp.
Merz entered office hoping that a more conservative approach from the traditional right could prevent voters from turning toward AfD. The Saxony-Anhalt results suggest that strategy has not delivered the political reversal establishment leaders were hoping for.
One of the central issues behind AfD’s rise has been immigration.
Germany experienced a dramatic influx of migrants during and after the 2015 European migration crisis, with large numbers arriving from Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. The policies of former Chancellor Angela Merkel became one of the defining political controversies of that period.
Merkel famously responded to criticism over Germany’s ability to absorb the newcomers with the declaration “Wir schaffen das” — “We can do it.”
The phrase became synonymous with Merkel’s approach to migration. But it also helped fuel a political backlash among Germans who believed their government had failed to adequately control the country’s borders.
AfD emerged as the major beneficiary of that frustration.
The party eventually became the most prominent political force outside Germany’s traditional centrist establishment and progressive left since the collapse of Nazi Germany in 1945.
Now, its breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt raises a much bigger question: Can the political barriers surrounding AfD survive a sustained surge in voter support?
AfD leaders clearly believe they are witnessing the beginning of something much larger.
“Germans simply are fed up with policy being made against Germany’s interests. We stood for election very clearly to represent the interests of our country – not Ukraine’s, not any other country’s,” said Alice Weidel, national co-leader of the party, after the polls closed, according to CNN.
Ulrich Siegmund, AfD’s state party leader, was even more direct when addressing supporters.
“We’ve made history, and we’re taking our country back,” said Ulrich Siegmund, AfD’s state party leader. “It all starts here in Saxony-Anhalt.”
The victory comes despite years of efforts by German political leaders and activists to marginalize the party.
The possibility of banning AfD has repeatedly entered Germany’s political debate. As recently as June, lawyers associated with the German Society for Civil Rights described the party as “demonstrably unconstitutional” and argued that a legal effort to prohibit it would be “likely successful,” according to Deutsche Welle.
Yet the electoral numbers present a difficult political reality for AfD’s opponents.
A party can be isolated by other politicians, but it becomes much harder to ignore when millions of voters continue putting it at the top of the ballot.
The issue has also attracted attention in the United States.
The Trump administration has warned European leaders that efforts to interfere with elections or suppress anti-establishment political movements could have consequences for transatlantic relations, particularly when it comes to NATO.
Vice President J.D. Vance made the issue especially clear during his 2025 address at the Munich Security Conference. Vance criticized European officials for using what he described as “hiding behind ugly, Soviet-era words like misinformation and disinformation” when attempting to restrict political movements.
He pointed to AfD in Germany, Reform UK in Britain and National Rally in France as examples of populist parties whose growing support could not simply be dismissed.
Saxony-Anhalt has now provided another reason for European leaders to pay attention.
The immediate challenge for AfD will be determining how to translate its historic vote share into actual governing power.
Because the party did not secure an absolute majority, it will need to decide whether to attempt to govern as a minority force or seek cooperation with another party.
That could prove extremely difficult.
Germany’s established parties have repeatedly pledged to maintain a political “firewall” around AfD and avoid forming governing coalitions with it. But the sheer size of the party’s victory creates a new dilemma: excluding AfD does not make its voters disappear.
AfD co-chair Tina Chrupalla said the party remained prepared to negotiate.
Chrupalla said AfD was willing to “extend a hand” to any party prepared to work with it as a majority government.
Whatever happens next in Saxony-Anhalt, the political ramifications will extend far beyond the state’s borders.
The European Union is heading into a potentially turbulent electoral period, with major votes expected across several key countries. Populist and nationalist movements are already positioning themselves to capitalize on voter frustration over immigration, economic pressures, national sovereignty and the direction of European institutions.
“The next 12 months is bumper election season across the EU. Ballots are expected in key nations France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Brussels fears more ‘extreme’ parties, left but particularly right of the political spectrum, may benefit across the board,” the BBC’s report read.
France’s National Rally and Spain’s Vox are among the parties that could benefit if the political winds continue moving in the same direction.
Britain presents another potentially explosive case.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has remained highly competitive in national polling, raising the possibility that the political movement associated with Brexit could eventually challenge the country’s traditional Labour-Conservative system.
For Germany, however, the message from Saxony-Anhalt is already unmistakable.
AfD has gone from political outsider to the largest force in a state parliament.
Its opponents can continue refusing to work with the party. They can continue warning voters about its policies. They can continue describing it as too extreme for government.
But the ballot box has delivered a result that Germany’s establishment cannot easily explain away.
The question now is whether Saxony-Anhalt represents an isolated regional upset—or the beginning of a much broader political realignment across Germany and Europe.
