In the latest election prediction model by renowned statistician and election analyst Nate Silver, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has tightened significantly. While Silver’s earlier model from June 26 showed President Joe Biden as a 2:1 underdog against Trump, his new model suggests that the contest between Trump and Harris is much closer. This has prompted many to caution that Trump’s supporters should not become complacent.
On Thursday, the New York Post reported Silver’s model, describing the election between Harris and Trump as “a toss-up.” According to Silver, this means both candidates have at least a forty percent chance of winning. Specifically, Silver noted, “As of this afternoon’s model run, Harris’s odds had improved to 44.6 percent, as compared to 54.9 percent for Trump and a 0.5 percent chance of an Electoral College deadlock. It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks.”
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This shift in the model indicates that Harris’s campaign is gaining traction, especially in critical swing states. Silver gives her a fifty-four percent chance of winning Michigan, a forty-seven percent chance of winning Wisconsin, and describes the race in Pennsylvania as evenly split at fifty-fifty.
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