Prominent data analyst Nate Silver is raising alarms about potential manipulation in 2024 election polling. Once known as the go-to pollster for accurate election forecasts, Silver now claims that fellow pollsters are using deceptive tactics to sway public perception, portraying the presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as neck-and-neck—even as Trump’s lead has been growing.
Silver, a self-described liberal who founded the highly respected FiveThirtyEight, voiced his concerns during a recent episode of the Risky Business podcast with co-host Maria Konnikova. In his latest forecast, Silver puts Trump at around 55% compared to Harris’s 45%, a clear advantage that he claims other pollsters are working to obscure.
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Silver didn’t hold back in his criticism of what he sees as dishonesty within the polling industry, especially among pollsters who aim to fit their numbers within a narrow range that keeps the race tight. “They all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie,’ no! You’re f–king herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” Silver exclaimed, referencing what he describes as the “herding” phenomenon.
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