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The memo reads:
“With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.”
Prominent Democrats have acknowledged the downturn in early voter turnout. Jim Messina, who served as Obama’s campaign manager, recently remarked on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” Some suggest that this admission may be an understatement, with the implications far graver for Democrats than Messina suggested.
According to NBC News, Trump currently holds a strong lead among voters planning to cast their ballot on Election Day itself, with a 16-point advantage (56-40) over Harris among these voters. David Axelrod, Obama’s former chief strategist, echoed these concerns on CNN, suggesting there are no guarantees that Democratic voters will turn out in large enough numbers on Election Day to secure a victory for Vice President Harris.
For Democrats, these numbers are more than a typical election hurdle. Historically, Democratic voters turn out in larger numbers during early voting, while Republicans show up in force on Election Day. With so many Democratic voters apparently opting not to cast ballots early, it raises serious questions about how many will actually go to the polls. Without the strong early turnout the party typically relies on, the Harris campaign is faced with a daunting task: convincing Democratic voters to show up on Election Day, something they historically have been reluctant to do in significant numbers.
Republicans, on the other hand, are capitalizing on the momentum. President Trump’s base has been energized, and the data suggests that this year’s Election Day turnout could be one of the strongest yet for his supporters. As the RNC’s Saler points out, if Republicans can maintain this momentum, it could lead to a decisive victory for Trump.
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A well-known Democrat data analyst, Tom Bonier from TargetSmart, released figures that underscore the disparity in turnout:
- Arizona: Urban turnout is down by 385,285 votes compared to 2020; female turnout has declined by 170,011 votes, while rural turnout has increased by 14,124.
- Georgia: Urban turnout is down by 153,846 votes; female turnout has decreased by 46,732, and rural turnout is up by 171,837 votes.
- Michigan: Urban turnout is down by 321,523 votes; female turnout has dropped by 204,856 votes, with rural turnout up by 55,951 votes.
- North Carolina: Urban turnout is down by 175,470 votes, female turnout by 154,459 votes, with rural turnout seeing an increase of 26,911 votes.
Other battleground states, including Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, show similar patterns, with urban and female turnout lagging significantly behind 2020 levels, while rural turnout has surged.
The consequences of these numbers are perhaps most concerning in Pennsylvania, where former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter cautioned Democrats that Harris will need an astonishing 600,000 ballot advantage over Trump in Philadelphia alone to secure the state.
The clock is ticking for Democrats, and they are left with little time to galvanize their base. For those who want to see their voices heard, the message is clear: get to the polls on Election Day.
Fudems