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The situation remains highly volatile. Exit polls suggest the National Rally may secure the most seats in the National Assembly but fall short of the 289 needed for a majority. Should this scenario materialize, France could see its first far-right government since World War II, with 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as prime minister. However, a hung parliament is also possible, necessitating coalition formation. The National Rally, with few natural allies among centrists and leftists, would face significant challenges in this regard.
The anticipated conservative surge was thwarted by a left-wing alliance in the second round. Exit polls indicate that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is projected to win between 132-152 seats. In contrast, the left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (NFP), is expected to secure between 172-192 seats, making a coalition government between Macron and the NFP highly likely. Euro News reported:
“The left-wing alliance the New Popular Front has come first in French legislative elections, but failed to obtain a majority of lawmakers needed to control the National Assembly, according to an exit poll.”
Ipsos predictions reflect a significant setback for the far-right National Rally, whose hopes for an absolute majority were dashed by tactical voting and strategic candidate withdrawals. The New Popular Front, comprising socialists, communists, greens, and the leftist France Unbowed party, is poised to capture between 172 and 192 of the 577 seats. President Macron’s Ensemble coalition is projected to win 150-170 seats, a steep decline from the 245 seats secured in 2022. Despite leading in the first round, Marine Le Pen’s RN is likely to finish third, with 132-152 seats, thus ending hopes of installing Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister.
Sky News European correspondent Adam Parsons described the atmosphere in France and at RN headquarters as one of “absolute shock.” Parsons stated:
“The coalition of the left and the center, who decided to withdraw candidates simply to thwart Marine Le Pen, has worked.”
Carry 46 rounds concealed? (comfortably)
This political upheaval follows another significant development: the leftist Labour Party’s landslide victory in the United Kingdom’s general election, which resulted in Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister. This series of events signals a broader shift towards left-leaning political movements across Europe, raising questions about the future of conservative politics in the region.
In conclusion, the French elections have upended expectations, with the National Rally failing to secure the dominance predicted by early polls. The left-wing New Popular Front has made significant gains, reshaping the political landscape. As France moves forward, the possibility of a coalition government led by Macron and the NFP looms large, setting the stage for a new era of political cohabitation and uncertainty.
