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Hochul’s approval ratings are sinking fast. The same poll showed only 30% of voters view her favorably, while a jaw-dropping 57% disapprove. That’s a political death sentence for someone hoping to run again. Meanwhile, Trump — the GOP kingmaker — is holding steady in the Empire State with 44% favorable ratings and 49% unfavorable, suggesting his brand is far from toxic in New York despite the media narrative.
Another recent survey by Siena College isn’t offering any lifelines for Hochul either. That poll pegged her approval rating at just 44% — an abysmal number for a sitting Democrat governor in a blue state. It also showed Stefanik pulling ahead of the GOP pack in primary support, earning 35% compared to Lawler’s 22% and Blakeman’s 11%.
And here’s the real kicker: 63% of voters in the latest poll said they’d prefer someone new rather than give Hochul another four years. Only 23% said she deserves reelection. That’s not a crack in the armor — that’s a gaping hole.
“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” said Co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce.
Stefanik isn’t just coasting, either. Her favorability is hovering at 34%, with another 34% of voters still undecided. That means she has a ton of room to grow, especially if undecided voters start leaning red as the race heats up.
The poll, conducted May 1-2, has a margin of error of 3.3%. But it sends a crystal-clear message: Kathy Hochul is in big trouble, and Elise Stefanik is positioning herself to lead a conservative resurgence in a state that’s been slipping away from Democrats since 2022.
According to Munce, the real deciding factor will be how New Yorkers feel about President Trump and the national Republican Party. Just last week, Republicans scored a major legislative win by pushing Trump’s signature tax cut package through the House — a clear reminder that the MAGA movement is alive and thriving.
Let’s not forget history. Back in 2018, Democrats steamrolled the GOP in New York thanks to anti-Trump sentiment and a weakened Republican base. That wave helped bring Andrew Cuomo into power and handed Democrats control of the State Senate.
But 2026 could be a very different story.
“Trump is more popular the second time around, especially with men, people of color, new voters, and independents,” Munce said.
Of course, Hochul’s campaign is doing everything it can to downplay the mounting threat. In a statement dripping with desperation, her spokesperson lashed out at Stefanik in typical DNC fashion.
“Elise Stefanik represents the worst of Washington extremism — a staunch Trump loyalist who is gutting New Yorkers’ healthcare and fighting to rip away their rights,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman.
“We welcome the opportunity to contrast Gov. Hochul’s record of putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, supporting our kids, and keeping communities safe with Stefanik’s out-of-touch, divisive and dangerous record — and fast-track her unemployment once and for all.”
That sounds more like a campaign in panic mode than one confidently heading toward re-election.
As 2026 creeps closer, one thing is crystal clear: New York Democrats are on the ropes — and Elise Stefanik is preparing to deliver the knockout punch.
