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AtlasIntel, regarded as one of the most reliable pollsters during the 2020 election, conducted the survey between September 20 and 25. With a margin of error of two to three percentage points, the results offer a glimpse into the current dynamics of the 2024 race.
If Trump were to win the five swing states where he currently leads, he would secure 290 Electoral College votes, surpassing the 270 needed to claim victory. This would leave Harris with 248 Electoral College votes, marking a significant challenge for her path to the presidency.
A spokesperson for Trump responded to the poll results, telling Newsweek, “Americans are sick and tired of Kamala Harris and her failed policies that have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border- and rampant crime that terrorizes communities. She is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal, and the American people know a fraud when they see one.” The sharp rhetoric from Trump’s camp highlights the high stakes of this election and the deep divide between the candidates.
The survey also showed that Trump would carry two of Harris’s key “blue wall” states, Michigan and Wisconsin. These states, which were pivotal in President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory, now appear to be swinging back toward the former president. Harris’s challenge lies in maintaining control of these traditionally Democratic-leaning battlegrounds, which could be her ticket to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Harris’s path to victory involves holding onto Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—states that form the backbone of the Democratic electoral strategy. However, even if she manages to secure these states, she would still need to win Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, a historically competitive area that polls suggest she is likely to take.
In 2020, Biden flipped Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which Trump won in 2016. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that allocate their electoral votes proportionally, rather than using a winner-takes-all system, adding a layer of complexity to the electoral map.
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Even if Trump only wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, he could still secure enough votes to be declared the winner. Alternatively, he might prevail by winning four key Sun Belt states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. Another possible path to victory for Trump would involve flipping just one of either Wisconsin or Michigan.
The polling data aligns with other recent surveys from firms like Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage, which also show Trump gaining momentum in crucial battleground states. The electoral map now projects Trump with 296 electoral votes, while Harris trails behind with 226.
Notably, Trump is making gains in traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with his lead growing by small but significant margins. Arizona and North Carolina remain tight, with Trump ahead by just one point, while Nevada and Georgia continue to be battlegrounds that both candidates are fighting hard to win.
Trafalgar’s data also indicates a dead heat in Georgia, a state that has been fiercely contested in recent elections, making it one of the most watched states this cycle.
Beyond the polls, political prediction markets are starting to reflect growing confidence in Trump’s chances of returning to the White House. Polymarket, a large prediction platform, shows Trump’s odds of winning the presidency rising to 49 percent—a notable increase from previous months.
Despite holding the office of vice president, Harris appears to be losing traction, even in Democratic strongholds like Michigan and Wisconsin. As the 2024 race heats up, these battleground states will be the focal point of intense campaigning as both Trump and Harris seek to secure the crucial votes needed for victory.
