A Stetson University survey conducted October 1–9 found Moody at 52% and Nixon at 41%. That result represented an 11-point gap among the poll’s modeled likely voters.
Other findings suggest the contest could be more competitive than those numbers indicate. A YouGov poll placed Moody at 49% and Nixon at 44%, while a St. Pete Polls survey conducted October 5–7 showed Moody at 47% and Nixon at 45%.
The latter survey, which included 836 likely voters, found only a two-point difference. The contrast between these results illustrates why individual polls should be examined alongside their methodologies, sample sizes, and field dates.
A separate MDW Communications survey of 2,351 likely voters, conducted October 4–10, measured Moody at 47.6% and Nixon at 42.4%. Ten percent of respondents remained undecided.
Taken together, these surveys show Moody ahead in several recent measurements, but they also reveal uncertainty about the size of her advantage. Turnout, undecided voters, and the performance of candidates outside the two major parties could influence the final result.
Moody Draws on Her Record and Trump Endorsement
Moody entered the U.S. Senate in January 2025 after Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed her to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who departed the chamber to serve as secretary of state under President Donald Trump.
Before joining the Senate, Moody served as Florida’s attorney general, developing a statewide profile through her work on law enforcement, consumer protection, immigration-related legal disputes, and challenges to policies supported by Democratic administrations.
Her campaign is emphasizing public safety, border enforcement, economic growth, and conservative priorities. These issues are central to her effort to retain the seat as Republicans seek to maintain their position in Washington.
President Trump has endorsed Moody, providing her campaign with support from one of the Republican Party’s most influential figures.
The endorsement also places the contest within the broader national political debate over immigration, economic policy, and the direction of the Republican Party.
For Moody, the central challenge is translating the support reflected in polling into actual votes on Election Day. Differences in turnout between early voting, mail ballots, and Election Day voting can affect the composition of the electorate and the eventual result.
Nixon Brings a Democratic Socialist Agenda to the Race
Nixon represents a Jacksonville-area district in the Florida House. She secured the Democratic Senate nomination in August after defeating Alexander Vindman, a former U.S. Army officer.
Her political platform includes universal health care, expanded assistance for childcare, and proposals aimed at making housing more affordable. Those positions distinguish her from Moody and place economic affordability at the center of her campaign.
Nixon’s identification with the Democratic Socialists of America has become a recurring point of contention. Republicans have criticized the affiliation, while Nixon has argued that focusing on the organization’s name distracts from the policy questions facing Florida residents.
“If it wasn’t DSA, they would be attacking me on something,” Nixon told CBS News in September while responding to questions about the organization and her political identity.
She added that “this is not about three letters,” describing the campaign as a debate over economic pressures confronting Florida families rather than a dispute over organizational membership.
The remarks underscore a broader disagreement over how voters should evaluate her candidacy: through her stated policy proposals, her ideological affiliations, or both.
For Republicans, Nixon’s platform presents an opportunity to contrast conservative approaches with proposals associated with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. For Nixon, the emphasis on health care, childcare, and housing offers a way to appeal to voters concerned about everyday expenses.
National Progressive Figures Enter the Contest
Nixon has attracted support from prominent figures on the political left, including Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Recent reporting cited a $250,000 contribution from Sanders’ political committee to her campaign.
Sanders and Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy have also planned campaign appearances with Nixon, reflecting interest from national progressive figures in the Florida contest.
Their involvement brings additional attention to a race that could serve as a test of the Democratic Party’s ability to mobilize progressive voters in a state that has leaned Republican in recent elections.
The national support may help Nixon expand her visibility and reach voters beyond her legislative district. However, the broader political environment presents a challenge: a candidate’s popularity among ideological allies does not necessarily translate into support from the wider statewide electorate.
Moody, meanwhile, can point to her statewide experience and backing from Trump as she seeks to maintain support among Republican voters.
Florida’s Political Landscape Raises the Stakes
Florida’s transformation from a traditional battleground state into a more Republican-leaning state has reshaped the political calculations surrounding statewide elections.
That shift does not eliminate competition, as the varying Moody-Nixon polling results demonstrate. A narrow survey margin can coexist with wider advantages in other polls, particularly when survey populations, turnout assumptions, and field dates differ.
Independent candidate Neil Gillespie has also appeared in some surveys. His presence offers voters another option and can complicate comparisons between polls that include different candidate lists.
The remaining campaign period will test whether Nixon can broaden her coalition beyond progressive voters and whether Moody can maintain the level of support reflected in several recent surveys.
Ultimately, the reported polling numbers are snapshots rather than guarantees. The November 3 election will determine whether Florida voters continue to favor the Republican incumbent or choose a different direction under Nixon.
For now, the race features two distinct political approaches: Moody’s emphasis on law enforcement, immigration, and conservative priorities, and Nixon’s focus on expanded social programs and affordability. Voters will decide which vision they prefer when they cast their ballots.
