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This surge in popularity presents a significant hurdle for Harris. Enten emphasized, “So, yes, Democrats can make this switch-a-roo but they’re still going to have to beat Donald Trump — a Donald Trump who is stronger than he has ever been before.”
When host Sara Sidner inquired about how Trump fares against Harris, Enten’s response painted a tight race. “Yes. So, let’s take a look here, right? We’ve been focusing so much on how Harris was doing better than Biden in the polling. And that’s true. If we take a look at the national average, what do we see? We see Donald Trump up by one — that’s a within-the-margin race, right? That’s a close race,” he elaborated.
However, Enten pointed out a critical factor: “But remember, of course, in the national popular vote, Democrats tend to do better there than they’ve done in the electoral college, at least when Donald Trump has been running for president. So last time around, when Joe Biden barely won in the electoral college, he actually won the national popular vote by four points. So, at this point, Donald Trump is running five points better — five — five points better than he was four years ago against Joe Biden.”
Enten’s analysis underscored the complexities of the electoral college system, which has historically favored Trump. “At this particular point, whether you look at the favorable ratings, whether you look at the horse race polling, we see that Donald Trump is doing significantly better than he was doing four years ago at this point. Kamala Harris is going to have to do better than this, of course, if she wants to win the popular vote, but more than that, if she wants to win the electoral college, where she’ll likely have to outperform how she’s done nationally,” he added.
The tight national popular vote scenario poses a significant risk for Harris. “Because the fact is, if you’ve got a tie in the national popular vote, that is probably not good enough if you’re Kamala Harris and you want to win the election against Donald Trump,” Enten concluded.
A CNN survey conducted by SSRS shortly after Biden’s withdrawal sheds light on the current voter landscape. The poll, conducted between July 22-23 among registered voters, revealed that 49 percent of respondents supported Trump, while 46 percent backed Harris. This survey followed CNN’s previous polls from April and June, where Trump led Biden by six points.
Carry 46 rounds concealed? (comfortably)
Further insights from the poll, as reported by Newsmax, show:
- 64% believe Republicans have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Trump is the party’s nominee.
- 50% of Harris supporters say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump, compared to 37% of Biden’s supporters who felt the same way about Biden.
- 74% of Trump supporters say their vote is to express support for him rather than opposition to Harris.
- Among Harris supporters younger than 45, 43% say their vote is more in support of her than against Trump, a significant increase from 28% of Biden voters in that age group.
- Democrats are divided on the direction for their next nominee, with 53% wanting to continue Biden’s policies and 47% favoring a new direction.
- A striking 88% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters believe their party has a better chance with Trump at the top of the ticket.
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Harris faces an uphill battle against a resurgent Trump. With polling data indicating a tight race and Trump’s favorability at an all-time high, the Vice President will need to rally significant support to overcome the electoral challenges ahead. Enten’s analysis highlights the critical dynamics at play and the formidable task Harris faces in her bid for the presidency.
