In a fictitious head-to-head rematch of the 2020 race, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are presently deadlocked, according to a recent survey from the crucial battleground state of Michigan. However, an intriguing turn occurs when Cornel West, a Green Party candidate, is presented as a substitute when Trump assumes the lead. This is consistent with a troubling polling pattern that indicates Biden may have difficulties if third-party candidates are included in the race.
In a recent Emerson College poll, the candidates were deadlocked at 44 percent, placing Trump and Biden in a statistical tie for first place. The poll also revealed that 5% of respondents are still unsure, while 8% said they would vote for a new candidate if given the chance.
President Biden’s support falls to 41% with the addition of West as an option, while West receives support from 4% of respondents. On the other hand, President Trump is in the lead with 43% of the vote. This emphasizes the possible threat third-party candidates might pose to Biden’s reelection prospects.
There are a number of third-party candidates who could run for president. Kanye West, who is well known for criticizing the political system, is one such contender. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia is also thinking about running for president as a member of the “No Labels Party.”
If he decides to run as an independent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a strong prospect, might represent a serious threat to President Biden. Recent surveys indicate that Democratic supporters are looking for a Biden replacement, but Kennedy has nevertheless managed to amass a large 10 to 15% support base.
Similar to the Emerson College survey on Friday, the former president has benefited the most from possible third-party candidates.
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“Third-party candidates don’t need to have large magnitudes of support to swing an election. Ralph Nader, the Green Party nominee in 2000, may have tipped that election away from Al Gore and toward George W. Bush by earning 2.7 percent of the national vote,” In a recent analysis, Steven Shepard of Politico noted. “And while the Green Party’s 2016 candidate, Jill Stein, only received a little over 1 percent, her share of the vote in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the three decisive states Trump flipped that year — exceeded Trump’s winning margin over Clinton.”
