Allan Lichtman, the political scientist famous for developing the electoral forecasting model “The Five Keys to the White House,” recently offered a controversial explanation for why his prediction about the 2020 presidential election turned out to be wrong. According to Lichtman, the American electorate’s “misogyny, racism, and xenophobia” were key factors in derailing his prediction.
Lichtman, speaking in an interview with CNN, suggested that voters failed to act pragmatically when it came time to make their decision. His prediction had suggested a straightforward path to victory for the Democrats, but he ultimately underestimated the significant emotional and cultural forces driving the electorate.
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“I think it’s clear that the electorate wasn’t pragmatic enough,” Lichtman explained. He blamed the voters for choosing to support candidates based on “guidance” rather than focusing on the immediate issues at hand. His system, which typically relies on a rational analysis of factors like economic performance and party dynamics, missed the mark because it overlooked the powerful influence of deeply embedded societal trends.
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