>> Continued From the Previous Page <<
The competition remains fierce in battleground state polling, with various firms reporting mixed results in key races. However, Trump continues to hold an advantage over Harris in these critical states. RealClearPolitics estimates that Trump would secure 287 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’ 251, taking all the major swing states except Wisconsin.
Recent polling trends have favored Trump, suggesting a resurgence in his support base. His renewed lead comes after an initial boost in popularity for Vice President Kamala Harris following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign in July. During this period, Harris received a wave of favorable media coverage, particularly from outlets with a left-leaning editorial stance, while Trump’s coverage remained largely negative.
According to Axios, prior polling by the Cook Political Report had Harris leading Trump in several key states, including Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week indicated that Harris held a narrow lead in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
However, a more recent survey conducted by Navigator Research, published on Tuesday, paints a different picture. This poll reveals that the race is essentially tied in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In some instances, Trump even has a slight edge: he leads Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46% to 45%) and by two points in Pennsylvania (46% to 44%), while the other three states are currently neck-and-neck.
The Navigator survey aligns with the RealClearPolitics Polling average for battleground states, which also takes into account Nevada and Georgia. This consistency across multiple polls suggests that the race in these critical states remains highly competitive.
Interestingly, Vice President Harris is performing better in these battleground states than President Biden did before he exited the race last month. Before Biden’s departure on July 21, Trump had maintained a lead of over 4 percent across seven battleground states in the RCP average, with his advantage increasing as the announcement drew nearer.
Carry 46 rounds concealed? (comfortably)
In a surprising development, a key supporter of Harris recently raised doubts about the accuracy of her polling numbers. Chauncey McLean, president of the super PAC Future Forward, which has raised significant funds to back Harris’ campaign, made headlines with his comments on Monday. Speaking at an event in Chicago tied to the Democratic National Convention, McLean stated, “Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public.”
McLean, who is known for keeping a low public profile, attributed Harris’ recent gains to increased support from young voters of color after Biden withdrew from the race. He noted that this shift has revitalized Democratic prospects in Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—states that were previously considered out of reach during the final days of Biden’s campaign.
According to McLean, Harris has multiple paths to victory, with seven states currently in play. He emphasized that voters are seeking more concrete information about Harris’ policy positions. Internal polling suggests that voters are not interested in vague promises or “white papers.” Instead, they are looking for specific examples of how Harris might differentiate herself from Biden and how she intends to improve their economic circumstances.
As the 2024 race heats up, both Trump and Harris face the challenge of maintaining and expanding their support bases. With battleground states playing a pivotal role in determining the outcome, the final stretch of the campaign is likely to be fiercely contested.
