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Iran Conflict May Wind Down, Officials Say

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The possibility of peace sent shockwaves through global energy markets almost instantly.

Oil traders reacted within minutes of the report hitting the wires. U.S. crude prices reportedly tumbled as much as 15 percent, while Brent crude fell by double digits as investors began pricing in the possibility that shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz could finally stabilize again.

That narrow waterway has effectively become the economic pressure point of the entire conflict.

Iranian threats against commercial shipping, combined with attacks and military confrontations near the strait, disrupted global energy flows and forced thousands of cargo vessels into delays and reroutes. The situation became so severe that the United States launched military escort operations to protect commercial traffic moving through the region.

Now, the White House appears to be cautiously signaling that tensions may finally be cooling.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to parts of the U.S. escort mission operating near the Strait of Hormuz, a move widely viewed as an attempt to create diplomatic breathing room while negotiations continue.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered one of the clearest public signs yet that the administration believes a negotiated settlement is possible.

“So they have an opportunity here to agree to something that will make it clear that they are not interested in a — one thing is to say we don’t want a nuclear weapon,” Rubio said during Tuesday’s White House briefing.

“Another thing is to do the things that prove you don’t want a nuclear weapon… They’re acting like they want a military nuclear program. That’s unacceptable,” he added.

Rubio emphasized that the current talks are not about instantly producing a finalized treaty, but rather establishing enough common ground to continue formal negotiations.

“So that’s the process we’re engaged in now to create — that’s the object of this diplomacy is to come up with some level of understanding about what are the topics that they’ve agreed to negotiate on. We don’t have to have the actual agreement written out in one day. This is highly complex and highly technical,” Rubio continued.

“But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear about the topics that they are willing to negotiate on and the extent and the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make those talks worthwhile.”

Despite the optimism, administration officials are clearly remaining cautious.

Rubio openly acknowledged that divisions within Iran’s leadership remain a major obstacle to any long-term agreement. Internal power struggles between hardliners, military leadership, and political factions inside Tehran have complicated nearly every previous attempt at diplomacy with the regime.

Still, the administration appears determined to test whether Iran is finally willing to step back from the brink.

“So look, the time has come for Iran to make a sensible choice, and it’s not easy for them to do that, obviously, because they have a fracture in their own leadership system,” Rubio said.

“And apart from that, I mean, the top people in that government are — to say the least, they’re insane in the brain. And so we need to address that, and it’s difficult because it’s hard to get past that in their system. But it’s important for them to make a sensible choice and the one that’s right for their people.”

For now, the world is watching one question above all others: whether this fragile diplomatic opening can survive long enough to stop a war that has already rattled global markets, threatened energy supplies, and pushed the region dangerously close to a much larger conflict.

If negotiators can pull off even a temporary agreement, it could mark the biggest turning point since the first missiles were launched back in February.

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