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Still, Mamdani dominates many of the key policy areas voters care about most. The poll shows that 50% of New Yorkers trust him to “bring needed change,” compared to 26% for Cuomo and 20% for Sliwa. On economic concerns like inflation and cost of living, Mamdani leads with 47%. Those numbers show the young progressive continues to benefit from his image as an agent of reform, especially among younger and more liberal voters.
But when it comes to crime — one of the most critical issues for working-class and older voters — the picture changes. Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels, performs best on public safety with 31%, just behind Mamdani’s 36% and ahead of Cuomo’s 30%. It’s the only category where the Republican nominee remains competitive, reflecting ongoing concerns about safety under New York’s progressive leadership.
In a head-to-head matchup, Mamdani would lead Cuomo 49% to 39%, with 7% preferring “someone else.” While that still gives the Democrat a double-digit advantage, it’s narrower than his three-way race margin — a worrying trend for Mamdani’s team as Cuomo consolidates disaffected moderates and centrists who want a more traditional approach to city leadership.
Cuomo’s campaign appears to be gaining traction among swing voters tired of radical policies and urban decline. His pitch as a steady hand contrasts sharply with Mamdani’s far-left platform, which many critics argue would push New York further down the road of economic pain and social unrest.
Favorability ratings paint a similar story. Mamdani’s popularity has dipped to 55%, down from 60% earlier this month. Cuomo sits at 45%, while Sliwa has quietly inched up to 40%. Even former President Donald Trump, long despised by much of the city’s political establishment, has seen his favorability tick up slightly to 27%.
When asked who could “competently run city government,” voters were nearly split: 42% said Mamdani, 40% said Cuomo, and 16% picked Sliwa. On taxes, Mamdani led again with 46%, compared to Cuomo’s 29% and Sliwa’s 19%.
The poll makes one thing clear — Mamdani’s lead isn’t unbreakable. His appeal as a “change” candidate may not be enough to offset growing anxiety over rising costs, crime, and quality-of-life issues. Cuomo’s resurgence shows that many New Yorkers are looking for balance after years of far-left governance.
With two weeks until Election Day, the battle lines are clear: Mamdani’s progressive revolution versus Cuomo’s centrist comeback, with Sliwa still holding the law-and-order line. The frontrunner remains ahead — but the momentum appears to be shifting. If the current trend continues, this could become one of the closest and most unpredictable New York City mayoral races in recent memory.
