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Civil rights groups, including the Alabama State Conference of the NAACP, challenged the map, arguing it diluted Black voting power. The Court agreed, affirming a lower court’s decision and requiring Alabama to add a second majority-Black district. That led to a Democrat pickup in the 2024 elections.
That ruling sent shockwaves through redistricting cases across the country — including Louisiana, where a similar map was redrawn to include a second majority-Black district, yielding the same result: a boost for Democrats.
Conservative Justices Signal Growing Doubts
But that may have been the high-water mark for Section 2. In Louisiana v. Callais, which was argued in March 2025, the court began expressing fresh doubts about the constitutionality of race-based districting.
“On March 24, 2025, the Court heard arguments in Louisiana v. Callais. The case questions whether creating a second majority-Black district to comply with the VRA violates the 14th or 15th Amendments by prioritizing race.”
Notably, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh — who both sided with the majority in Milligan — appeared skeptical this time around, questioning the oddly shaped districts that had emerged from the redrawing process.
Then came Friday’s bombshell: The Court called for additional briefings, expanding the case’s scope to consider whether any use of race in districting is constitutionally permissible. That move signals the Court may be preparing for a sweeping overhaul of how race is factored into congressional and legislative mapping.
Section 2 on the Chopping Block?
Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act has long been used as a shield against racial gerrymandering. But some on the bench — especially Justice Clarence Thomas — have repeatedly questioned whether it’s even constitutional.
“A decision limiting the ability to create majority-minority districts to comply with the VRA could weaken Section 2 protections nationwide, affecting redistricting in a number of states.”
In other words, if the Court rules against race-based redistricting, it would not only remove the requirement for states to carve out majority-minority districts — it could make such moves illegal altogether.
That would be a game-changer, especially in states like Texas and Ohio, where Republican-controlled legislatures are already in the middle of mid-decade redistricting efforts. A weakened VRA would give them more leeway to redraw districts in their favor, potentially erasing Democrat-leaning seats or forcing Democrats to compete in more evenly split areas.
2026: The Political Map Could Be Unrecognizable
With the Supreme Court now accepting full briefing and signaling oral arguments this fall, a final ruling is expected by June 2026 — just in time for states to redraw their maps ahead of the midterms.
While Democrats argue this could disenfranchise minority voters, Republicans see it as an opportunity to bring redistricting back to a race-neutral footing — in line with the Constitution’s original intent.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. If the Court strikes down race-based mapmaking, it could end decades of legal precedent and force lawmakers nationwide to rethink how districts are drawn — not based on racial categories, but on population, geography, and political balance.
One thing is clear: the 2026 election map may look nothing like what voters have known for decades. Stay tuned — this one’s just getting started.
