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Meanwhile, Harris is leading among women overall, with a 56% to 40% advantage, but interestingly, Trump is matching her support among white women. This suggests that Harris, despite being the first woman of color on a presidential ticket, is struggling to connect with a critical voting bloc. The Post pointed out that “Harris leads 56% to 40% with women overall, but Trump has tied her with white women, suggesting the novelty of a historic female presidential candidate of color isn’t resonating with this group.”
Harris continues to hold a commanding lead among Black voters, with an overwhelming 90% to 2% margin. However, this figure contrasts with other polls that suggest Trump is making inroads among Black men, a shift that could impact the final results in these tightly contested states.
In addition to the Quinnipiac data, an Emerson College poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 49% in North Carolina. The poll, conducted among 850 likely voters in late September, also revealed that 9% of those who plan to vote for Harris disapprove of the Biden administration’s performance—a potential warning sign for the current administration.
These polling results are consistent with other recent surveys from North Carolina. A Washington Post poll released earlier in the week also showed Trump with a 2-point lead, as did a survey from East Carolina University. The RealClearPolitics polling average indicates a much closer race, with Trump ahead by less than a percentage point.
In Georgia, the situation looks even more favorable for Trump. Quinnipiac’s poll suggests the former president is on course to reverse his narrow 2020 loss to Joe Biden. Trump is leading Harris 50% to 44% in the state, with overwhelming support from white voters, 71%, and white voters without college degrees, 78%.
Despite the strong showings in these swing states, both candidates’ supporters appear largely immovable. According to the poll, 92% of Trump voters and 91% of Harris voters indicated they have no plans to change their minds before election day. Notably, the Quinnipiac poll in Georgia shows a larger margin for Trump than the RealClearPolitics average, which has him ahead by just over a percentage point.
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In Arizona, Trump’s lead continues to grow as well. Emerson College’s polling of 920 likely voters shows Trump with a 50% to 47% advantage over Harris, a more comfortable lead than his 2.1% average lead reported by RealClearPolitics. The New York Post remarked that “among 920 likely Arizona voters polled, Trump leads Harris 50% to 47% according to Emerson, giving him a slightly healthier lead than his 2.1% RCP polling average lead in the state.”
However, the Trump campaign’s momentum doesn’t seem to extend down-ballot. In North Carolina, GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is trailing Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein, despite Trump’s statewide lead. This follows reports about Robinson’s controversial statements and accusations regarding his past online behavior, which he has denied. Meanwhile, in Arizona, Democratic Rep. Reuben Gallego is ahead of Republican challenger Kari Lake by a wide margin.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans may be more optimistic. Dave McCormick, the Republican Senate candidate, is showing strong signs of momentum in his race against incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, raising hopes for a GOP Senate flip in 2024.
These polls show Trump gaining ground in some critical battleground states, but the race is far from over. With just over a year to go, every vote will matter as both candidates continue their push for the White House.
