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Men lean heavily toward Talarico, giving him a 22-point advantage, while women remain split evenly between the two candidates, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball explained.
A former middle school teacher, Talarico became a household name last year after joining fellow Texas Democrats in leaving the state to block a Republican-led redistricting plan. His national profile has only grown since then.
Crockett, who entered the race late in December, shook up the contest with her sudden candidacy. Her decision prompted former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), the Democratic nominee for the Senate in 2024, to abandon a 2026 Senate bid and instead run for a House seat, setting the stage for a high-profile Democratic showdown.
On the Republican side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton currently holds a razor-thin one-point lead over Cornyn, at 27 percent to 26 percent among likely GOP voters. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) trails with 16 percent, while nearly 30 percent remain undecided.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May,” Kimball said.
In general election hypotheticals, Paxton is neck-and-neck with both Democrats at 46 percent. Cornyn performs slightly better, topping Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and edging Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent.
Despite Democratic optimism, Texas remains a strong Republican state. President Trump carried the Lone Star State by double digits in 2024, and the Cook Political Report still rates the Senate race as likely Republican, just shy of a solid GOP classification.
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was conducted Jan. 10–12 among 1,165 Texas voters. Among 413 likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error was 4.8 points, while the 550 likely Republican primary voters had a 4.1-point margin of error.
