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“Fresh off the heels of Donald Trump winning the state by more than 3%, some North Carolina Republicans are chomping at the bit to replace incumbent Republican US Senator Thom Tillis with someone who they believe will be more loyal to President Trump,” said Ben Galbraith, Senior Pollster at Victory Insights.
Despite her popularity in the Republican primary, Lara Trump faces hurdles in a hypothetical general election matchup. The poll reveals that both she and Tillis trail Democratic challenger Roy Cooper by razor-thin margins. Cooper, the outgoing governor, holds a narrow edge, leading Lara Trump by 1.2% and Tillis by 1.1%.
Cooper’s enduring popularity, bolstered by his steady leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and ability to connect with both sides of the aisle, makes him a formidable opponent. However, analysts believe that Lara Trump’s potential to energize low-propensity Trump voters—those who don’t typically participate in midterms—could make her a competitive challenger.
One bright spot for Lara Trump is her growing appeal among independent voters. The poll shows she outpaces Tillis in this crucial demographic, securing 41.1% of their support compared to Tillis’s 40.6%. This slight advantage could prove pivotal in a close race, especially if Trump’s loyal base turns out in record numbers.
“If Republicans hope to win, they need a candidate who can fundraise on par with the Democrats, make it through the primary election unscathed, and win over nonpartisan and middle-of-the-road voters,” Galbraith explained. “Our new poll finds that Lara Trump – President Trump’s daughter-in-law, campaign advisor, and co-chair of the RNC – could be just the right person for the job.”
While speculation swirls around Lara Trump’s Senate ambitions, she has not officially declared her candidacy. Instead, she has been eyeing other opportunities, including the Florida Senate seat soon to be vacated by Marco Rubio, who is set to become Secretary of State.
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At a recent event, Lara Trump hinted at her willingness to step into the role if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis taps her for the position. “If I am appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and he feels that I’m the right fit to take over the U.S. Senate seat for Marco Rubio, those are big shoes to fill, but I would take it very seriously,” she said at the Washington Post’s Global Women’s Summit.
The potential of a contentious Republican primary has raised concerns among party strategists. A prolonged battle between Tillis and Trump could weaken the eventual nominee, providing an opening for Cooper in the general election. Mark Robinson, another name floated for the race, has consistently denied interest in running, leaving many to wonder who will ultimately carry the GOP banner.
For now, Lara Trump’s surging popularity reflects the ongoing realignment within the Republican Party. With the 2026 race looming on the horizon, the stakes in North Carolina couldn’t be higher.
