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Adding to the Democrats’ anxiety is the historical accuracy of Emerson College’s polling. Back in 2020, their final poll before Election Day showed Joe Biden with an 8% lead over Trump in Wisconsin. However, the actual results were much closer, with Biden winning the state by less than 1%. If the current poll is similarly overstating the Democratic advantage, Harris and her team could be in for a rude awakening come Election Day.
The recent numbers come at a time when Harris appears to be losing momentum after enjoying a brief surge following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek re-election. Initially, this decision seemed to galvanize Democratic voters around Harris. However, that boost may have been short-lived.
In another poll conducted by the Napolitan Institute, Trump leads Harris by a slim margin of 46% to 45%. Once undecided voters are factored in, Trump extends his lead to 49% over Harris’s 47%. This is a stark contrast to just a week ago when the two candidates were tied at 49%.
“These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over,” said Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute in a report by Just the News. The poll further emphasized that the core dynamics of the race have not changed much. “Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown,” Rasmussen added. With the Democratic convention and presidential debates still ahead, Harris may still have opportunities to regain her footing—but time is running out.
One of the most concerning aspects of this polling trend is how it mirrors previous elections where Trump has outperformed his polling numbers. Historically, Trump supporters are more likely to turn out on Election Day compared to Democratic voters, especially in states like Wisconsin, where low turnout can swing results in Trump’s favor.
Even more striking is that this race remains extremely close despite Harris’s early advantage and Trump’s controversial standing among voters. According to Just the News, “Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout.” This voter enthusiasm gap could give Trump the edge he needs to claim Wisconsin once again.
The tight race in Wisconsin is just one part of a larger trend. National polls also indicate a close race between Trump and Harris, with varying results depending on the pollster. A recent Rasmussen Reports survey shows Trump leading Harris by three points, with 49% of the vote to her 46%. When third-party candidates are factored in, Trump still holds a narrow lead over Harris.
Although some polls show Harris maintaining a slight advantage, the overall picture is far from clear. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls gives Harris a 2-point lead over Trump in a five-way race, but her lead drops to just 1.5 points in a head-to-head contest.
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With the 2024 election fast approaching, the Democrats cannot afford to lose Wisconsin. Harris’s team must act quickly to stop the bleeding and reverse the current trend. The Emerson College and Napolitan Institute polls are alarming not just for their immediate implications but also for what they signal about the broader electoral landscape.
In a state known for its nail-bitingly close elections, even a small shift in voter sentiment can make all the difference. If Harris and the Democrats hope to secure Wisconsin and, by extension, the White House, they will need to pull out all the stops to regain the support of voters who appear to be leaning back toward Trump.
The race remains too close to call, but one thing is certain: the Democrats have a serious fight ahead of them in Wisconsin. Whether Harris can turn things around or whether Trump will once again defy the odds remains to be seen. One thing is for sure—the 2024 election is shaping up to be a battle for the ages.
