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“With less than one year until Election Day, Democrats remain poised to take back the House in 2026 and elect Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker,” the memo read.
That’s quite a stretch. What really happened is simple: blue states voted blue. Again.
In Virginia, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race — in a state Joe Biden carried by 10 points in 2020 and Kamala Harris by 8 points in 2024. Over in New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill cruised to victory in a state that hasn’t voted Republican for president since 1988.
And in New York City, socialist Zohran Mamdani was elected mayor. That’s not a shock — the city that voted nearly 70% for Harris just crowned a far-left activist.
Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin celebrated as if it were a national landslide, saying, “American voters just delivered a Democratic resurgence. A Republican reckoning. A Blue Sweep.”
Except no, Ken — Blue America just voted blue. Again.
House Speaker Mike Johnson wasted no time calling out the Democratic delusion.
“There’s no surprises. What happened last night was blue states and blue cities voted blue. We all saw that coming, and no one should read too much into last night’s election results. Off-year elections are not indicative of what’s to come,” Johnson said.
He’s right. The Democrats didn’t win any battlegrounds. They won the same places they always do.
Even President Trump acknowledged that the recent shutdown might have temporarily hurt Republicans in these blue pockets — but he wasn’t buying the narrative that it’s a national trend.
“I think if you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative, for the Republicans,” Trump told Senate Republicans.
That “big factor” boils down to angry federal employees — most of whom already vote Democrat — punishing Republicans in their own backyards.
If Democrats think Tuesday’s results spell doom for Republicans, they might want to check the history books.
In 2021, Republicans swept Virginia and New Jersey during Biden’s first year in office. The media screamed about an incoming red wave — but when the 2022 midterms came around, the wave barely rippled.
These off-year elections often mean nothing. The Brookings Institution found that in only five of the last 12 election cycles did one party’s off-year victories translate to national success. Sometimes they predict the future — more often, they don’t.
Democrats celebrating this week’s results are making the same mistake Republicans made four years ago — mistaking regional wins for a national movement.
There’s no question the government shutdown irritated voters in Virginia and New Jersey. An NBC poll found 52% of voters blamed Republicans for the shutdown, compared to 42% who blamed Democrats.
But here’s the truth: that anger was highly localized. Northern Virginia, home to thousands of federal employees, saw those same government workers vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. Spanberger won 61% of households tied to federal work — a direct reflection of paycheck politics, not national sentiment.
Democrats want to spin it into a nationwide “resurgence.” But it’s not. It’s bureaucrats in blue states voting their wallets.
Republicans, however, see one major takeaway — and it’s not about turnout. It’s about exposure.
“The biggest takeaway I have is that not a day should go by when a Republican candidate… should talk about Zohran Mamdani,” a GOP strategist said. “I think he is the party now, frankly.”
And he’s right. Democrats can’t claim a mandate while pretending Mamdani doesn’t represent them. The socialist mayor of America’s largest city ran on rent freezes, free buses, and anti-capitalist rhetoric — and Democrats cheered.
That image is political gold for Republicans heading into 2026. Every ad in every swing district will show Mamdani’s radical victory as a warning: “This is what Democrats stand for.”
Democrats just did what Democrats do — they won in states they already control. They’re calling it a “Blue Wave,” but it’s nothing more than a ripple inside friendly territory.
Republicans know the real fight is coming next November, when Trump’s base turns out in full force.
Democrats are living in a mirage if they think Tuesday’s local victories mean a national mandate. The only “wave” coming in 2026 will be a red one — and it’s going to hit them hard.
