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As Baier prepares for his interview with Harris, the political landscape is shifting rapidly. For the first time, a prominent election prediction model has moved from classifying the 2024 race as a toss-up to leaning in favor of former President Donald Trump. This shift is fueled by a series of recent polls that show Harris’ once-commanding lead has evaporated, with Trump now gaining ground in key swing states.
According to a report from the Daily Mail, a model developed in partnership with J.L. Partners now gives Trump a 62.4% chance of winning the presidency. This marks a significant shift from the end of last week when Trump’s odds were slightly lower at 59.8%. “When those numbers are fed into our exclusive prediction model, it shows that Trump would claim the overall win in 62.4 percent of our simulations,” the outlet reported. The growing momentum for Trump has turned the contest from a dead heat into a race that is starting to tilt in his favor.
The latest polling data highlights the importance of key battleground states in determining the final outcome. States like Arizona and Pennsylvania remain critical to both candidates’ strategies. In Arizona, Trump has opened up a five- to six-point lead, according to polling from the New York Times, while Harris maintains a slim three- to four-point advantage in Pennsylvania.
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Other data suggest that the race in Pennsylvania is a toss-up, with both candidates polling at 47%. Nevada, another crucial state, has moved further into Trump’s column, with the former president now predicted to win it in over 60% of simulations. These gains have bolstered Trump’s overall chances and shifted the electoral map in his favor.
Despite her initial surge in the polls following President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside, Harris has faced increasing challenges as the election nears. Once riding high on positive press and record-breaking fundraising numbers, the vice president’s campaign has encountered several setbacks in recent weeks. The latest polling shows that Harris’ national lead has evaporated, and Trump is now favored in most battleground states.
According to Callum Hunter, a data scientist at J.L. Partners, the momentum in the race has shifted decisively toward Trump. “The model looks at the WHOLE picture of the country, not single spot polls. The trend is continuing in Trump’s favor and has shown little sign of changing since it began at the end of September,” Hunter noted.
The updated prediction model projects that Trump will secure 312 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 needed for victory. In comparison, Harris is projected to win 226 Electoral College votes. While Pennsylvania remains a pivotal state, the latest polling suggests that it may not be the deciding factor, as Trump has made gains in other critical states like Arizona and Nevada.
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Hunter’s analysis suggests that Harris’ path to victory is narrowing, with less than three weeks left before Election Day. “With Harris having nearly a 40 percent chance of victory, the election could still be one of the closest in history,” the Daily Mail reported. However, the current momentum is on Trump’s side, and it remains to be seen whether Harris can reverse the trend in the final days of the campaign.
As voters prepare for the final stretch, all eyes will be on Harris as she takes the stage with Baier for an interview that could shape the race’s closing narrative. With key issues like the economy, immigration, and foreign policy expected to dominate the conversation, Harris will have her work cut out for her as she seeks to regain lost ground.
The coming weeks promise to be a decisive period for both candidates, with every poll, debate, and interview potentially tipping the scales in this high-stakes election.
