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With Trump now holding a narrow lead in national polling averages, Enten’s claim has intrigued conservatives and alarmed Democrats. In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump has inched ahead of Kamala Harris by just 0.2%, making this one of the tightest races in recent history.
The New York Times/Siena College poll recently found Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48% each—a significant departure from prior races. Enten noted that this poll sits in the “middle of the spectrum” compared to other national surveys, which generally show a very close contest.
“You don’t have to look very far to find Donald Trump ahead nationally,” Enten observed. “He was up by 2 points in the CNBC poll, up by 3 [points] in the Wall Street Journal poll, very close races within the margin of error.”
As the election approaches, polling data has shown a surprising shift toward Trump, hinting at a final push that might help him achieve the elusive popular vote win. “But the bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven’t focused upon, a very, very tight race,” Enten noted. “Fact is Donald Trump is very much in a position [where] he could win the popular, which of course this is something he would absolutely love to do.”
For Trump, a popular vote win would mean achieving his “white whale,” the national mandate he’s sought since his first campaign. And with a tighter-than-ever race, this outcome seems more possible than ever.
One of the keys to Trump’s potential victory lies in reducing his margin of defeat in heavily Democratic states like California and New York. By cutting into these typically high Democratic numbers, Trump could strengthen his national showing.
Moreover, Trump’s support among Black and Hispanic voters has risen, according to polling data. If this trend holds through Election Day, it could play a decisive role in securing more votes in critical states, helping him narrow gaps and potentially win the popular vote.
Enten pointed out that Trump is polling better against Kamala Harris than he did against Joe Biden in 2020 or Hillary Clinton in 2016, both of whom held substantial leads at this point in their races. In 2016, Clinton was ahead by an average of six points, and in 2020, Biden led by nine points in the national popular vote polls. Now, Harris leads by only one point—a virtual tie within the margin of error.
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“The fact that the polls are so close, the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn’t think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around,” Enten reflected. “He could make history, not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate as well.”
Democrats have long criticized the Electoral College and championed switching to a system that elects presidents based on the national popular vote. Should Trump win the popular vote, this could lead to increased calls from the Left to abolish the Electoral College altogether, setting up a potentially explosive debate on how America’s president is chosen.
As the nation watches this race tighten, Trump’s chance at the popular vote has become a historic possibility. And if he does manage to secure it, the implications could reshape future elections and make waves across the political landscape.
