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“The enthusiasm is as high as it could possibly be for Harris, but there is a numbers problem in Arizona,” Pearson added. “There is just a mathematical complication in Arizona that other states don’t have. None of the other swing states have lost Dems the way Arizona has.”
As the Harris campaign ramps up its efforts in Arizona, conversations with campaign officials, local Democrats, and donors reveal a growing sense of unease. The optimism that surrounded her campaign at the outset has started to dwindle. One Democratic operative closely involved with Harris’ campaign said the mood is “not optimistic.”
“If you would rank the seven battleground states, people think it’s the least likely she wins, which is surprising considering the confidence when she first replaced Biden,” the operative said. Early in the campaign, Democrats dismissed concerns about Arizona, confident that they could hold the state.
But the polls paint a different picture. Former President Donald Trump currently leads Harris by 1.4% in the RealClearPolitics polling average of Arizona. The two most pressing issues for Arizona voters—the economy and immigration—are areas where Trump holds a distinct advantage over Harris, complicating her path to victory.
Another challenge Harris faces in Arizona is the divided Republican Party. The Arizona GOP is split between traditional Republicans, loyal to the late Senator John McCain, and those aligned with the Trump movement. Harris’ campaign is attempting to bridge that gap by reaching out to the so-called “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) faction of the party.
RINO Mesa Mayor John Giles, who spoke at the Democratic National Convention, has been working on Republican outreach for Harris. Despite his efforts, Giles admitted that if the election were held today, Harris would not come out on top. “I mean, the answer is, nobody knows the answer to that question. I think the thing that scares me is—I’ll put money on her winning the popular vote for the United States,” Giles said. “That’s going to happen. But she might, you know, join the Hillary Clinton-Al Gore club.”
In addition to the GOP divide, Harris’ campaign is also facing a significant issue with Latino voters. Latino men in Arizona have shown strong support for Trump, according to polling data. Arizona Republican strategist Barrett Marson emphasized the importance of this key demographic. “Harris is doing an effective job of reaching out to Republicans for sure,” Marson said. “However, I’m not sure that she is investing the same energy into courting Latino men. And that could make all the difference.”
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The lack of confidence from Harris’ campaign and her supporters signals a warning about her chances in Arizona. While her outreach to Republicans has been somewhat successful, the failure to gain traction with Latino men—an increasingly important voting bloc in Arizona—poses a significant hurdle.
With the election just weeks away, Arizona remains a critical battleground that could determine the fate of Harris’ campaign. The enthusiasm of her supporters may be high, but the stark reality of the numbers suggests that the road ahead will be anything but easy. As the clock ticks down, the Harris campaign faces mounting pressure to turn things around in the Grand Canyon State, or risk watching it slip out of their grasp altogether.
