As the 2024 presidential election approaches, some Democratic senators are growing increasingly concerned that former President Donald Trump’s support may once again be undercounted by polling data, echoing a familiar trend seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Despite Trump’s controversial style and reputation, some Democrats believe his base is larger and more committed than current polls suggest.
In both previous elections, Trump managed to outperform national and state polling expectations, leading Democrats to be wary of overly optimistic projections. Polls currently show Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow 2.2 points, according to the RealClearPolitics national average. Although this is a smaller margin than Biden’s lead at the same point in 2020 (7 points) and Clinton’s lead in 2016 (3 points), Democrats are bracing for a closer race than these figures suggest.
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A growing number of Democrats, speaking anonymously, are concerned that Trump’s polling figures may be masking his actual support. “That’s ominous,” said one Democratic senator. “There’s no question that is concerning, but you’re working as hard as you can work, no matter what.” The senator also expressed the belief that many voters may be hesitant to admit their support for Trump, despite their private intention to vote for him. “Most of what he preaches, most of us have taught our children to try to not be that way on the playground,” they explained, suggesting that some voters are “embarrassed” to admit they support Trump.
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