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Swing voters, crucial for any presidential victory, are particularly disenchanted with Biden. The poll indicates that this demographic believes the President should withdraw from the race by a 2-to-1 margin. Despite this, Biden’s standing in the national race against former President Donald Trump has only slightly declined, aligning with another internal poll released by the Biden campaign to mitigate Democratic concerns. This poll, shared by top Biden pollster Geoff Garin over the weekend, showed Biden trailing Trump by just one percentage point.
Garin stated, “The debate had no effect on the vote choice. The election was extremely close and competitive before the debate, and it is still extremely close and competitive today.” Polls from CNN and FiveThirtyEight echoed this sentiment, showing minimal changes in national support post-debate.
However, while national figures remain relatively stable, state-by-state results are alarming for the Biden campaign. Including third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Biden has dropped approximately two points in every swing state and several reliably blue states.
In Pennsylvania, a state Biden frequently visits and claims as his home, he is now trailing by seven points, down from five points before the debate. The situation is similar in Michigan, where Biden also trails Trump by seven points. OpenLabs’ findings are even more dire in Arizona and Georgia, with Biden trailing by 10 points, and in Nevada, where he lags by nearly nine points.
The most disturbing results come from states not typically considered battlegrounds. In Virginia, New Mexico, Maine, and Minnesota, Biden’s lead has dwindled to just a fraction of a percentage point. In the historically blue state of Colorado, Biden’s lead is a mere two points.
In New Hampshire, Biden’s trailing position aligns with a recent survey from Saint Anselm College, which also showed him behind in the Granite State.
Carry 46 rounds concealed? (comfortably)
The memo also evaluated potential replacement candidates for Biden, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Vice President Kamala Harris, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Every potential replacement polled better than Biden, a stark contrast to a survey from September that found no significant difference between Biden and these candidates.
This leaked memo underscores the precarious position of President Biden’s campaign as he faces dwindling support in crucial states. The sharp decline among swing voters and even in some traditionally blue states poses a significant challenge for his re-election bid. With internal polls suggesting that replacement candidates might perform better, the Democratic Party faces critical decisions in the coming months. The road to November 2024 is fraught with uncertainty, and the Biden campaign must navigate these turbulent waters to secure a victory.
