Recent polling data reveals a concerning trend for President Joe Biden as he prepares for the upcoming election, showing a loss of ground to former President Donald Trump. According to Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, the economic perception among voters is significantly influencing their presidential preference. Kimball notes, “Voters who think the cost of living is rising support Trump over Biden, 56% to 32%.” Additionally, those who feel their income is far below average also lean towards Trump, 50% to 32%, while those perceiving their income as far above average favor Biden, 55% to 29%.
The latest Emerson College poll places Trump ahead with 46% of the vote compared to Biden’s 43%. This marks a two-point decline for Biden since the previous Emerson survey, while Trump’s support remains unchanged.
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The poll also delved into how employment levels affect voter preference for Biden or Trump. It found a clear division based on the number of hours voters work each week. Those not working are nearly evenly split between Trump and Biden. However, Biden leads among those working 30 hours or less per week, while Trump finds stronger support among voters working more than 40 hours per week, peaking at 80% support among those working over 60 hours weekly.
Including independent candidates in the ballot, Trump leads with 44% support compared to Biden’s 40%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West garnering 8% and 1% respectively. The poll also notes significant support for Kennedy Jr. among independent voters and younger demographics.
Looking ahead to the 2024 U.S. congressional elections, the poll shows a tie between generic Democrat and Republican candidates, with 11% of voters undecided. Among those undecided in the presidential race, more lean towards the Democratic congressional candidate.
