According to a recent FiveThirtyEight study, a third-party candidate would tremendously benefit Trump, possibly putting Joe Biden in a “nightmare scenario” and ensuring Trump’s victory in 2024.
According to the research, a rematch between third-party candidates may dislodge voters from Biden and give Trump an advantage in the election. While it’s unclear if this would actually lead to a spoiler candidacy, historical patterns and common sense show that third-party candidates typically have a stronger influence when the campaign as a whole is closely contested.
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Surprisingly, no questions concerning Robert Kennedy Jr. were asked of the participants.
The general consensus among commentators is that the entry of a third party candidate would seriously scuttle the election.
Since late May, a number of studies have looked at prospective third-party candidates, including the bicameral No Labels ticket and Cornel West’s Green Party bid. The polls repeatedly showed that Biden held a slim advantage over Trump in head-to-head contests or that they were even. Trump, however, gained support and frequently overtook the lead when a third-party option was included. The polls provide a variety of explanations for this trend, with some arguing that Trump continues to have greater support among Republicans than Biden does among Democrats, while shifts in independent voters’ views are less clear-cut.
Discover the impact of including a third party candidate in the election by looking at the insightful figure below from FiveThirtyEight.
Additional commentary on Geoffrey Skelley’s report
These polls offer potential reasons for the marginal rise in Trump support when a third-party candidate is present. In contrast to Biden among Democrats, Trump consistently maintained a higher level of support from Republicans, but the effect on independent voters varied. According to a poll by Data for Progress, Trump gained from Biden’s loss of support among independents, but a study by Echelon Insights revealed that Democrats switched more in Manchin’s direction than Republicans did in Trump’s. Furthermore, according to surveys from Emerson College and Echelon Insights, West mostly pulled support from Biden among Democrats, however the Emerson study also revealed that more independents were defecting from Biden than from Trump.
“Early 2024 polls demonstrate how, in a close election, third-party campaigns from the center and left could potentially help Trump against Biden. Of course, other scenarios could also drastically alter the electoral environment,” Skelley adds.
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Finally, Politico’s Steven Shepard offers the following perspective:
Election outcomes can be significantly impacted by even modest amounts of support for third-party candidates. Ralph Nader’s 2.7% national vote share in 2000 may have swung the election in George W. Bush’s favor rather than Al Gore’s. In a similar vein, Jill Stein’s support in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin exceeded Trump’s margin of victory against Clinton in those states, despite the fact that she only garnered little more than 1% of the vote in 2016.
Consider the influence RFK Jr. or another capable third-party candidate might have on the 2024 election. Consider the potential impact of someone like RFK Jr. if figures like Joe Manchin and Cornel West can make a tiny difference.
