Niall Ferguson, a Harvard-educated historian, is sure that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination and defeat Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. In a piece for The Spectator, Ferguson presents the historical evidence in favor of his forecast.
Despite having poor popularity ratings, Biden and Trump stand out in a number of ways. Ferguson claims that Trump has a sizable advantage in terms of economic policy, which might have a substantial influence on the outcome of the election. According to the statistics, the previous president was successful in relating to voters on economic issues, which was a key component in the election.
“What this suggests to me is that Joe Biden is in serious danger of following Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush into the bin marked ‘one-term presidents’. Why?” He posed a rhetorical query.
“For the simple reason that no president since Calvin Coolidge a century ago has secured re-election if a recession has occurred in the two years before the nation votes,” he said.
“It does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover’s presidency,” he added. “A plain vanilla recession will suffice.”
“In the 12 months through March, total bank credit in the US economy declined in real terms,” he said. “That rarely occurs. Since 1960, it has happened only during, or in the immediate aftermath of, a recession. This is the indicator to watch, along with the surveys of borrowers and lenders.”
“Perhaps Peggy Noonan is right that Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who is running for the Democratic nomination, can mount a real challenge to Biden,” he went on. “He has the magic name, after all, even if he is an anti-vaccine crank. Perhaps the West Virginia senator Joe Manchin was hinting at a presidential run when he issued a statement last week that declared: ‘Make no mistake, I will win any race I enter.’”
“But the lesson of history is clear – the Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election,” he said.
“Another lesson of history is that only one previous president has secured a second non-consecutive term: Grover Cleveland in 1892,” he added. “As Jim Carville understood, ‘change’ generally beats ‘more of the same’ in America. But don’t let anyone quote F. Scott Fitzgerald at you. A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case,” he said.
Meet Niall Ferguson, a renowned historian from Scotland who holds the Milbank Family Senior Fellow post at the Hoover Institution as well as a senior fellow position at the Belfer Center at Harvard University. At prestigious universities like the London School of Economics, Harvard University, New York University, and the New College of the Humanities, he has served as a former professor. Ferguson also holds the position of senior research fellow at Jesus College in Oxford.
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Ferguson is a well-known academic who focuses on the history of the British Empire, American imperialism, and economic, financial, and international history. He views the British Empire favorably and even jokingly described himself as a “fully paid-up member of the neo-imperialist gang” during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. He was named one of the top 100 most important persons in the world by Time magazine in 2004 in recognition of his considerable impact and experience.
Ferguson is not simply a professor. He also writes and hosts documentary television shows. In 2009, his series “The Ascent of Money” even took home the International Emmy for Best Documentary, enhancing his standing as a significant figure in the field.
