Democrats may be leading the national congressional polling, but a closer look at the latest survey reveals a potential weakness that could complicate their push to regain control of Congress. While opposition to President Donald Trump remains a significant factor in voters’ decisions, the party appears to face a critical challenge: getting its supporters sufficiently motivated to turn out at the ballot box.
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll gives Democrats a 52% to 44% advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. On the surface, that eight-point lead appears encouraging for Democrats heading into the midterm elections. However, several findings buried in the survey suggest that their advantage may not translate into the decisive electoral victories party leaders are hoping for.
The biggest concern involves voter enthusiasm, particularly among demographic groups Democrats have traditionally relied on to build winning coalitions. Younger Americans, nonwhite voters, and college-educated white women are expressing notably lower levels of excitement about voting than President Trump’s most committed supporters.
That difference could become especially important in competitive congressional races, where turnout can determine whether a candidate wins or loses.
