A new analysis of Michigan’s early voting activity is drawing attention to one of the country’s closely watched Senate contests, with an election analyst reporting a narrow Republican advantage in a modeled breakdown of ballots tracked so far.
The October 19 report from E DataGuy counted 683,402 early and mail ballots in its statewide tracking model. The accompanying graphic assigned 336,492 votes to Republicans and 333,233 to Democrats, while placing another 13,675 ballots in a separate category.
Under those estimates, Republicans held a lead of 3,259 votes.
The analyst characterized the narrow margin as a potential “firewall,” referring to the advantage reflected in the model. The graphic also labeled the race as leaning Republican, although that assessment represents the analyst’s interpretation of the data—not an official election result or a guarantee about the outcome.
