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That blunt assessment reflects what shipping data is now showing: the ceasefire may exist on paper, but it has not translated into real-world access.
Only a Handful of Ships Getting Through
Movement through the strait has slowed to a trickle.
According to analysts, just three vessels managed to pass on Thursday. Two were Iranian-flagged ships, and the third was a dry bulk carrier. That’s a dramatic drop compared to normal daily traffic.
Some ships attempting the crossing are reportedly hugging routes close to Iran’s Larak Island—far from standard commercial lanes. Others are going dark, switching off tracking systems in an apparent attempt to reduce risk.
The message is clear: the waterway is not operating freely.
Trump Calls Out Iran
President Donald Trump didn’t hold back in his response to the ongoing disruption.
“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” Trump warned.
The former president has emphasized that the ceasefire terms included the full reopening of the strait—something that clearly has not happened.
Iran Accused of Controlling Access
Behind the scenes, intelligence sources suggest Iran is tightly controlling who gets through—and who doesn’t.
“The Strait is effectively under full IRGC control. They decide who gets to go through, but more importantly, who doesn’t,” an Israeli intelligence official told Fox News.
Adding to the tension, reports indicate Tehran may be charging vessels for passage. According to the Financial Times, ships could face a $1-per-barrel toll, with payments allegedly demanded in cryptocurrency.
This turns a strategic waterway into a potential geopolitical toll booth.
Global Shipping Forced to Reroute
With the strait unreliable, companies are scrambling for alternatives.
Cargo is now being diverted through ports in Oman and along the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates. These detours are adding up to two extra weeks to delivery times and driving shipping costs up by about 25%.
At the same time, nearly 20,000 seafarers remain stuck in the region, unable to proceed safely through the Gulf.
Fear, Insurance, and Uncertainty
Even for companies willing to take the risk, major obstacles remain.
Insurance premiums for war-risk coverage have skyrocketed, and many policies now come with strict limitations. Without proper coverage, most operators simply won’t move.
Smith explained the danger in stark terms.
“We don’t know whether the Strait of Hormuz is mined. Even if it isn’t, the risk of being hit by a missile or a drone is a big enough deterrent,” Smith said. “No one’s willing to take the chance.”
That fear is enough to keep global oil flows frozen—even without active combat.
Energy Leaders Sound the Alarm
Top officials in the energy sector are warning that the situation is far from resolved.
Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, delivered a clear message.
“This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open.”
He added, “Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” he said. “Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage.”
A Fragile Ceasefire on the Brink
The ongoing disruption underscores a harsh reality: a ceasefire alone is not enough to restore stability.
While U.S. officials—including Vice President JD Vance—continue diplomatic efforts, tensions remain high. Iran has reportedly linked the closure to ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon, further complicating negotiations.
Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials are expected soon, with hopes of securing a more permanent agreement.
But until ships begin moving freely again, the Strait of Hormuz remains less a trade route—and more a pressure point in a growing global standoff.
The Bottom Line
Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply depends on this narrow stretch of water.
Right now, it’s effectively closed.
And until that changes, the global economy is sitting in a dangerous waiting game.
