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But that sense of relief quickly unraveled.
By Wednesday night, Trump delivered a primetime address that shifted the narrative entirely. Instead of outlining a withdrawal plan, he issued a stark warning, vowing to strike Iran “extremely hard” over the coming weeks. There was no clear exit strategy, no roadmap for reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz, and no detailed plan to bring energy prices down.
Markets reacted violently.
Oil futures surged more than 11%, climbing above $111 per barrel by Thursday morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 600 points at its lowest point of the day. Global markets followed suit, with sharp declines across Asia, including significant drops in South Korea and Japan.
Meanwhile, economic concerns are deepening at home. Jerome Powell warned that the United States is now grappling with a third major supply shock, following the disruptions caused by COVID and ongoing trade tensions. According to Powell, the scale and duration of this new shock remain uncertain.
Beyond the pump, the consequences are spreading into nearly every corner of the economy.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critical waterway, has effectively been shut down since late February following military strikes. This single chokepoint typically handles about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Now, tanker traffic has collapsed by more than 90%, creating one of the most severe supply disruptions since the 1970s oil crisis.
But energy is only part of the story.
Fertilizer shipments have also been heavily impacted, with roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passing through the strait. Nearly a million metric tons are now stranded, unable to reach global markets. Prices for key agricultural inputs like urea have skyrocketed, jumping 32% in just one week.
American farmers are already feeling the squeeze. The American Farm Bureau Federation, joined by dozens of other groups, has warned that the disruption is hitting an already fragile farm economy at the worst possible time: planting season.
The ripple effects are unavoidable.
Diesel prices, which power the entire supply chain from farms to grocery stores, are projected to climb above $5 per gallon. Analysts warn this will inevitably push food prices higher, adding more pressure on households already struggling with inflation.
Some forecasts paint an even darker picture. If the conflict drags on, oil prices could spike toward $200 per barrel, potentially sending gasoline prices soaring to $7 per gallon nationwide.
For now, Americans are caught between conflicting signals. On one hand, Trump insists the situation will be resolved in weeks. On the other, escalating military actions and tightening global supply suggest the opposite.
At the center of it all is a growing concern that geopolitical decisions are hitting hardest at home. From the gas pump to the grocery aisle, everyday Americans are already paying the price.
And with no clear end in sight, that cost may only continue to rise.
