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Arizona pollster Mike Noble summed up the chatter by noting, “He looks great on paper.” Noble added that if Kelly is indeed testing the waters, “Arizona voters would say he’s doing it like an engineer, quietly, cautiously with the safety switch on.”
For years, Kelly branded himself as a pragmatic moderate — a “problem-solver,” not a partisan warrior. But his voting record tells a different story. He reliably backs Democratic leadership, including supporting the government shutdown earlier this fall that delayed paychecks for countless military families and essential federal workers.
Interestingly, despite the buzz, some early 2028 Democratic primary polls don’t include Kelly at all. Instead, the spotlight is on the usual list of high-profile Democrats: Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Kamala Harris. Other names gaining momentum include J.B. Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Even fellow Arizona Democrat Sen. Ruben Gallego has been visiting early-voting states, creating a potential home-state rivalry.
Republicans, however, aren’t exactly intimidated by Kelly’s potential candidacy. GOP strategist Hogan Gidley told 2Way, “He has more baggage than a Delta turnstile.” He didn’t go into detail, but said flatly, “Could Kelly be a formidable presidential candidate in the 2028 general election? I don’t think he gets to the nomination.”
Another Arizona Republican strategist, Barrett Marson, argued that Kelly hasn’t yet proven he can sustain the interest Democrats are temporarily showing him. “Mark Kelly’s biggest challenge is keeping this momentum going,” he told the Times. Marson added, “Donald Trump won’t make him the lead foil every weekly episode of ‘As 2028 Turns.’ So he has to find a way after this controversy blows over to stay relevant.”
But overshadowing all political speculation is a developing legal storm. Just two weeks ago, the Department of War confirmed it opened a formal review into allegations of misconduct tied to Kelly’s role in the “Sedition Six” video. The video — in which Kelly and other Democrats urged service members to “refuse illegal orders” — triggered immediate outrage across the military community.
According to Fox News, Pentagon officials are evaluating multiple options, including the unprecedented step of recalling Kelly to active duty so he could face court-martial proceedings under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
In its official statement, the department stressed, “This matter will be handled in compliance with military law, ensuring due process and impartiality,” adding that additional comments will be withheld to protect the investigation.
The Department of War also issued a pointed reminder that military retirees remain fully subject to the UCMJ, and emphasized to active-duty personnel that “orders are presumed to be lawful” and must be followed — a line many saw as a direct rebuke of Kelly’s video.
As Democrats test-drive talking points about Kelly’s “promise” and “leadership potential,” the reality remains clear: the senator may be spending more time dealing with military investigators than building a presidential campaign. For a man the left hopes to pitch as their next commander-in-chief, the timing could not be worse.
Every Country In The World Has Executed People For Sedation (planning to overthrow an elected government).