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The race was triggered by Green’s resignation earlier this year for a private-sector position, setting the stage for a December 2 showdown. Spanning from the Kentucky border down to Alabama and including parts of north and west Nashville, Tennessee’s 7th has long been a red bastion. Democrats, seeing an opportunity to capitalize on recent victories elsewhere, have injected substantial resources into Behn’s campaign, drawing national attention and high-profile endorsements. Behn, despite facing several controversies in recent months, retains strong support among the progressive base.
According to the poll, the economy tops voter concerns at 38 percent, followed by housing affordability at 15 percent. Health care and “threats to democracy” each garnered 13 percent, showing that traditional conservative priorities like fiscal and economic issues remain at the forefront of voter minds.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. His comments highlight the critical importance of turnout in a race that could hinge on just a few percentage points.
The survey also revealed generational divides in voter support. Early voters lean heavily toward Behn, with 56 percent backing her compared to 42 percent for Van Epps. On the other hand, those planning to vote on election day show a slight preference for Van Epps, 51 percent to 39 percent. Younger voters under 40 are Behn’s most loyal demographic, with 64 percent supporting her, while Van Epps’ strength grows with age, commanding 61 percent of voters over 70.
The Emerson/The Hill poll surveyed 600 likely and early voters between November 22 and 24 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. While Republicans still hold an advantage in the district overall, the results underscore how a motivated Democratic turnout and energized progressive base could turn what was expected to be an easy GOP win into a nail-biting contest.
As the special election approaches, both campaigns are ramping up efforts to mobilize voters, with Van Epps counting on older and Election Day voters, while Behn focuses on energizing younger voters and early ballots. With just days to go, Tennessee’s 7th may provide one of the most closely watched bellwethers in the nation this election cycle.
