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This year’s turkey costs are up nearly 40% thanks to widespread bird flu outbreaks that slashed supply by almost 10%. Industry analysts say the U.S. turkey population has dropped to its lowest level in four decades.
That means retailers are eating losses instead of passing them along to customers. Wholesale prices climbed from 94 cents per pound in 2024 to $1.31 this year, yet Target and others are still keeping last year’s prices to avoid losing shoppers.
Walmart CEO John Furman explained the situation bluntly on Good Morning America:
“Overall, grocery bills are up. Just the price of meat is up, the price of other commodities are up — this is why retailers are putting promotions on for Thanksgiving staples earlier than they typically would.”
Walmart quickly fired back, unveiling its own Thanksgiving bundle for under $40 — enough to feed 10 people. That’s about $4 per person, and $14 cheaper than last year, with Butterball turkeys at 97 cents per pound, the lowest since 2019.
The competition didn’t stop there. Amazon joined the battle with a five-person feast for $25, featuring a 69-cent-per-pound Butterball turkey — the cheapest bird in the mix.
ALDI, never one to miss a bargain war, dropped its 10-person meal to $40 — shaving $7 off last year’s price.
These deep discounts mark a rare moment where major retailers are sacrificing profits just to stay relevant with inflation-weary families. It’s a short-term gamble designed to win loyalty before the holiday rush — but experts warn it might not pay off if consumers remain too broke to spend beyond the basics.
The Thanksgiving price battle is more than a marketing stunt — it’s a sign of how fragile the American economy still is.
According to recent surveys, consumer confidence has plunged 35% compared to last year. Families are still recovering from years of inflation that quietly chipped away at paychecks and savings.
A new McKinsey report found that three out of four shoppers plan to “trade down” this season — buying smaller quantities, choosing cheaper brands, or chasing deals across multiple stores.
Meanwhile, grocery prices continue rising 2.7% year-over-year, even as retailers absorb exploding wholesale costs.
The result? Retail giants are now in a “panic mode” arms race — slashing prices to levels unseen since before the pandemic just to keep customers coming back.
Target and Walmart are both losing money on every turkey they sell. But they’re doing it to protect the one thing that really matters: customer loyalty.
They’re betting shoppers will grab the cheap bird and then load up on extras like pies, drinks, and desserts.
But that gamble only works if families still have cash left to spend — and in 2025, that’s far from guaranteed.
This Thanksgiving, the dinner table has become ground zero for America’s economic reality. Retailers aren’t just competing for customers — they’re fighting for survival.
