New Jersey’s once-sleepy governor’s race has erupted into a nail-biter — and Democrats are starting to sweat.
A fresh Quantus Insights poll shows Republican Jack Ciattarelli, backed by President Donald Trump, locked in a statistical tie with Democrat Mikie Sherrill. The poll gives Sherrill just a slim 49% to 46% edge — a margin well within the survey’s ±2.6% error rate. With leaners included, the spread shrinks even further to 49.2% to 45.9%, putting the race squarely in toss-up territory.
The Political Map Shifts
Conducted Oct. 26–27 among 1,380 likely voters, the poll paints a picture of a state divided — one where blue dominance is slipping. New Jersey’s electorate has aged and hardened politically: 77% of voters are over 45, 36% are seniors, and women outnumber men 53% to 47%.
Democrats still hold a registration advantage (44% to 34%), but that’s where the certainty ends. The battleground is Central Jersey, the suburban swing corridor that makes up nearly 28% of the electorate. Whoever wins there, wins it all.
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