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Still, this new data injects fresh energy into the race. For months, Sherrill has been comfortably ahead in the polling averages. RealClearPolitics currently shows her with an +8.8 percentage point lead. But momentum is clearly shifting.
Why does this matter so much? Because New Jersey is no longer the Democrat stronghold many assumed it to be. Republicans are riding high off the massive political earthquake of 2024, and Ciattarelli’s surge is proof that voters in even the bluest states are fed up with business as usual.
Just look at what happened last November. Kamala Harris barely held New Jersey, beating Trump by fewer than six points. She secured 51.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 45.9 percent. Compare that to 2020, when Biden cruised with 57.3 percent against Trump’s 41.4 percent. That’s one of the sharpest rightward swings in the nation.
The math is shifting, too. Back in 2020, Democrats made up 38 percent of registered voters in New Jersey while Republicans stood at just 22 percent. By the time the Trump-Harris showdown arrived in 2024, the GOP’s share had climbed to 24 percent—eating into both Democrat and independent numbers.
Ciattarelli and his supporters see history on their side. The last gubernatorial race in New Jersey exposed how wildly off the polls can be. In 2021, a National Research survey had Democrat Governor Phil Murphy leading Ciattarelli by 12 points. The “experts” predicted a double-digit Democrat blowout. But when voters actually showed up, the race was razor thin. Murphy squeaked by with just a three-point margin despite drowning Ciattarelli in cash.
That embarrassing miss still haunts pollsters today—and it gives Republicans hope that lightning could strike again.
The political establishment is on notice. The Garden State may soon deliver another shock to Democrats who have grown too comfortable. And if Ciattarelli’s internal numbers hold up, New Jersey could be the crown jewel of a growing red wave that shows no sign of slowing down.
