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In other words: the volcano is showing troubling signs, but due to rough Alaskan weather conditions, the full picture is still unclear. The weekly earthquake activity continues, and the inability to gather recent gas measurements has made predicting what comes next even harder.
Still, Haney warns that if Mount Spurr erupts, it likely won’t be a quiet one. The blast would likely come from the Crater Peak vent—just like the violent eruptions of 1953 and 1992—and “it would be explosive.”
Ash clouds could rocket 50,000 feet into the sky, threatening aviation routes and coating surrounding regions in volcanic debris.
In its latest update, the AVO noted that “[s]hallow earthquake activity underneath Mount Spurr remains elevated.” And while the likelihood of an immediate eruption is “less certain,” scientists aren’t taking anything off the table.
“The rate of deep earthquakes (greater than 6 miles, or 10 km, below sea level) has been fairly constant, suggesting that magma remains active deep beneath the volcano,” the update explained.
Though the immediate risk has ticked downward since last month, the AVO insists the situation still demands attention: “the volcano remains at an elevated level of unrest and an explosive eruption (or eruptions) like those that occurred in 1953 and 1992 is still possible.”
That warning came with a chilling reminder: “We expect to see increases in seismic activity, gas emissions, and surface heating prior to an eruption, if one were to occur. Such stronger unrest may provide days to weeks of additional warning.”
But don’t expect a countdown clock.
“We cannot assign an exact timeframe for when an eruption will occur, if it does. We expect to see additional changes to monitoring data prior to an eruption, as magma moves closer to the surface,” the scientists explained.
That includes changes to earthquake patterns, surface deformation, and more visible melting of snow and ice—patterns eerily similar to what occurred in 1992 just weeks before the last eruption.
Still, not every signal means the volcano will blow. In fact, Mount Spurr has had several false alarms over the years. “From 2004 to 2006, Spurr summit experienced an episode of increased seismicity, surface uplift, and heating that melted a large hole in the summit ice cover and generated debris flows, but no eruption occurred.”
Even earlier, in 1979, 1982, and 1989, short-lived earthquake swarms rattled the area without leading to a full-scale blast.
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But experts say it’s not a matter of if Spurr will erupt again—but when. And with the volcano already restless and watching weather hampering data collection, all eyes are now on Alaska’s icy giant.
If Mount Spurr wakes up, the consequences could be massive. The last time it erupted, flights were grounded, ash rained down across Alaska, and Anchorage itself was blanketed in volcanic debris.
In today’s hyper-connected world, one explosion could wreak havoc on commercial air traffic across the Pacific Northwest and beyond.
For now, scientists continue to keep watch. But with Spurr’s history and the current signs beneath the surface, Americans would be wise to keep an eye on the north—because nature may be getting ready to remind us who’s really in charge.
